16 July 2008

FOR SALE(maybe): 7 Theme parks and the future of their cities

By now I assume all have heard about the InBev purchase of Anheuser Busch. InBev has let it be known that 'non-essential' Busch businesses will be sold off. This will more than likely include the Busch Entertainment department. With their 7 theme parks, a commitment in Dubai, waterparks, hotels and numerous other hospitality holdings this sale has been roughly valued at close to $9 Billion.

So who are the parties that may purchase this empire and what does that mean to the communities these parks are in. (I will mostly focus on Florida since this is a I-4 themed blog and since Busch Entertainment is now based in Orlando.)

The first name that most people mention is 6 Flags. I think this is not even an option for them. They are currently struggling to keep a profit, they lost nearly $150 million in the first 3 months of this year alone. They are also already committed in Dubai so having 2 projects in Dubai would be overwhelming for the company that is trying to streamline its operations.

The next group most mention is Cedar Fair, but they too are currently in debt, due to a purchase Paramount Parks two years ago.

With the presence in Central Florida Disney is always a name dropped too. They did try to purchase the SeaWorld parks once before. But it is a poorly kept secret that Disney will be expanding into mainland China this year. They also are already in the works, again a poorly kept secret, for an 5th park in Florida that would be a direct competition to Discovery Cove. They have never purchased another theme park. They have explored off-site entertainment and now own off site hotels. Busch Gardens Williamsburg could easily be made into the infamous Disney America park that Eisner dreamed of. The Dubai deal could be transformed or even expanded with a Disneyland Dubai (they are the only major theme park company in America to not jump on the Dubai bandwagon yet.) This would make Disney even more of a competition to Universal. Seaworld Orlando easily fits the family model of Disney. The only issue is Busch Gardens Tampa, which is direct competition to Animal Kingdom. BGT could be made into a more thrill park, a rumored park of Disney for awhile. With the Tampa port so close the Disney Cruise Lines could sail out of Tampa, have a hotel at Busch Gardens, making the Land and Sea deals all the more enticing. If Disney buys them BGT will be the odd ball park that's fate may be ultimately death. Most of the rides could be moved to other parks (Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom could absorb most of these rides easily, along with SeaWorld Orlando), the animals could be sent to Animal Kingdom and sold to zoos, and the property would be remolded into a Disney Vacation Cub resort with the unused property likely sold off. Though Tampa would be a great place for Disney to test its off-site ideas, so a Downtown Disney shopping complex could be built on it also (its cheaper to test in Tampa than say Chicago).

So that leaves CNL of Orlando, Paraques Reunidos of Spain, Nakheel of Dubai, Disney, PARC Management of Jacksonville, Florida, and Merlin Entertainment of Blackstone.

Okay so lets the get the easy ones out of the way.

I would be very surprised if PARC. Founded in 2002 they didn't get really noticed until 2007 when they purchased 7 water and theme parks from Six Flags. All of these parks were small localized parks. These parks were then sold to CNL of Orlando and then management was leased back to PARC. Then earlier this year PARC purchased the NASCAR Speed Parks and a water park in Myrtal Beach. With these purchases and with the smaller size of PARC it is very unlikely that PARC can even afford a purchase of the size of Busch. If they could afford it, it would still be difficult for them to manage parks of such size and caliber.

Okay so the next group would be CNL Lifestyle Properties of Orlando.

(I should mention I do know some people who work at CNL, non in the Lifestyle Properties department, and the topic discussed here has not been mentioned at all, that said let me continue with what I think, again this is all my opinion based on public knowledge and nothing else.)

They have money, but 9 Billion maybe even more than they can come up with. They also focus mostly on hotels and smaller attractions. They do currently own one Tampa attraction, a small Grand Prix attraction. They do own those old 6 Flags park that PARC manages, but again these parks are smaller localized parks.

If CNL does purchase the Busch Parks it would work since both are based out of Orlando. With this purchase we could see the Busch parks adding more hotels, shopping and possible residential units. We could also possible see the Great Wolf Lodges that have been shaking up the hotel entertainment industry up north come to Florida. These lodges and indoor water parks are a joint venture of CNL, Great Wolf and Ripleys Entertainment (another Orlando based entertainment company). Overall though CNL focuses on investments on a smaller scale so this would be a huge jump for them, one I don't see them doing.

Next is Nakheel. This Dubai based company is already wprking with Busch on the Dubai parks. There is no doubt this company has the money to purchase the parks. The are the company responsible for the infamous palm and world shaped islands in Dubai. They also have investments in hotels, all in Dubai, including the soon to rise ICON hotel, that is shaped like a wheel rising from the ocean shore. At this point Nakheel is only in Dubai and they have not expressed any interest of expanding beyond Dubai.

If they do purchase Busch we can expect the properties to be marketed big time in the middle east. They will also likely transform the properties into live/work/play properties (like most of their current properties). Nakheel is currently in partnership with Trump, who has already been trying to make a presence in Tampa, San Deigo and some say Orlando. Nakheel is also in partnership with Kerzner, who own Atlantis in the Caribbean. It is well known that Busch's Discovery Cove in Orlando markets to the same audience as Kerzner does. Kerzner partnering with Nakheel could mean mega-hotels, shopping centers, and possibly casinos at the parks. Nakheel uses parking garages in most of its properties, they have mastered the art of partnerships, and they have the money to purchase the parks.

They would be a likely candidate IF they were interested in investing outside of Dubai. It would be a great shot in the arm for Central Florida to get some of the Dubai money. Dubai is quickly becoming Florida's #1 competition, both in business and in entertainment. Nakheel could bring this competition into a partnership. For Nakheel to be interested it would take the local governments to grant them huge freedoms (from building heights to environmental restrictions).

Parques Reundios of Spain is likely candidate. They already own one central Florida park, Silver Springs and Wild Waters of Silver Springs, Florida (north of Orlando just outside Ocala). They also own a smaller family fun center in Dania Beach, Florida. In Europe they have numerous parks of various sizes, few though are large.

They have experience working with animals and with coasters, but nothing really to the caliber of Busch parks. They do invest into the local economy where they are, so that may help Tampa. They also manage cable car systems in Spain so Tampa's cable car system could be managed by them and expanded to BGT. Their presence in Europe would help attract European visitors also. They are currently owned by Candover Investments. This firm is known for its streamlining and bottom line focus. With a price tag of at least $5 Billion and more than likely at $9 Billion Busch Entertainment would be a very long term investment for them, one I don't think they would be willing to wait for.

Parques also just bought the Kennywood Entertainment Company here in America last year. With this purchase being so new and so large I find unlikely Parques would be ready to make the huge leap into the Busch parks. I feel Parques doesn't have the money, the management, or the interest in Busch Parks. (Though they are a great investment so Candover may be interested.)

That leaves one group left. Merlin Entertainment of Blackstone. Merlin is the best bet in my eyes. They are also the best for the area. Blackstone is the silent partner of Universal. They own 50% of the company. That means if Merlin buys Busch, they could then do passes and joint advertising with Universal. This could also mean that the I-4 corridor could get more Merlin attractions. Merlin would probably make the new Busch Entertainment headquarters in Orlando its North America base. This would help them expand into North America, something Merlin has been trying to do for some time now.

I see a future where BGT has a parking garage and a shopping complex adjacent to the park (like CityWalk), this would be great for USF also! Fowler Ave will become a new version of I-Drive with Merlin attractions up and down it. Either this or I can also see Merlin possibly trying to revive Ybor with the tourist. With the Florida Aquarium, the multiple museum's, the cruise terminals Ybor is right the alley for Merlin.

See Orlando has never been kind to the half day attractions due to the saturation of full theme parks. Tampa though is very successful with these smaller attractions. The Florida Aquarium, The Museum of Science and Industry, Lowry Park Zoo, the museums of St. Pete, all are half day attractions that have been highly successful. This success with the re branded Merlin Busch Gardens could make Tampa not just Orlandos neighbor but also a must see for every vacation.

In Orlando Merlin could add these attractions fo CityWalk and to the new SeaWorld area (with SeaWorld, Discovery Cove, 2 hotels being built, and Aquatica this area is real need of a uniting transit system and central shopping/entertainment district.)

Well that is my opinion of who may buy Busch and what they will do with it. What do you think?

No comments: